SP

SpaceX

publicNasdaq: SPCXseeded profile
Aerospace· Launch & satellite communications· Starbase, United Statesspacex.com ↗CIK 0001181412 ↗
Compare
Scores 51 min agoLast event 3 d agoSTALE · SEC 4 d ago
Radar composite
33.5+4.4over 30 days
STABLE+6.9
Last signal
Active signals
35 of 56
Confidence
72%

Signal score, not a calibrated probability · config v1 · scores

Contributing dimensions

SCORE BREAKDOWN

IPO
59.6
Readiness 65 · structural
Tokenization
7.9
Securities-tokenization evidence
On-chain
5.9
Settlement / custody infrastructure
Explainable scoring

Why it scores this way

Methodology →

Raising the score

decayed points
  • IPO+14.6 points added to the score
    Filing Evidence
    3 signals after decay · component at 73/100, weighted 20% of the dimension
  • IPO+13.3 points added to the score
    Regulatory Evidence
    13 signals after decay · component at 83/100, weighted 16% of the dimension
  • IPO+8.0 points added to the score
    Funding Maturity
    total funding $12457M, latest round private_placement
  • IPO+8.0 points added to the score
    Financial Maturity
    company is already public
  • CHAIN+5.9 points added to the score
    Securities Infrastructure
    2 signals after decay · component at 37/100, weighted 16% of the dimension
  • IPO+5.7 points added to the score
    Executive Evidence
    10 signals after decay · component at 71/100, weighted 8% of the dimension
  • TOK+4.1 points added to the score
    Explicit Statements
    1 signal after decay · component at 23/100, weighted 18% of the dimension
  • IPO+4.0 points added to the score
    Market Conditions
    201 S-1/F-1 filings on EDGAR in last 90d vs baseline 60

Holding it back

No contradicting evidence, and nothing has decayed materially yet.

Points are shown after time decay and source-quality weighting. Evidence loses weight on a half-life of IPO 90d · TOK 120d · CHAIN 180d and is dropped entirely after 730 days. Scoring configuration v1. This is a signal score, not a calibrated probability.

Showing component-level attribution. Which individual filing or article moved each component — and the day-over-day change explanation — is part of Pro. Compare plans →

Score movement

What changed

7 daily snapshots
28.433.5+5.1radar composite over 10 days
Last 10 days
+5.128.4 → 33.5
Last 24 days
+4.928.6 → 33.5

Evidence detected in the last 7 days

  • Reported IPO exploration / consideration+0.6

    Breaking: Anthropic IPO Eyes October Launch At $2 Trillion Valuation To Beat SpaceX

    coingape.com Tier 4 source, Secondary
  • secondary_private_market

    Investor says pre-IPO fund hid markups on SpaceX and Stripe stakes

    InvestmentNews Tier 4 source, Secondary
  • Reported IPO exploration / consideration+1.2

    Anthropic Considers Letting Shareholders Sell In IPO, Departing from SpaceX Playbook

    The Information Tier 4 source, Secondary
  • Reported IPO exploration / consideration+1.1

    Daily Digest: Anthropic IPO could eclipse SpaceX, Rippling and Runlayer drop competing lawsuits

    The Business Journals Tier 4 source, Secondary

These are scored events the pipeline retrieved inside the window. A move is not only new evidence: existing signals also lose weight to time decay, corroboration can change, and company attributes such as funding or status can move a component. This list is limited by your plan, so there may be more.

ProHow much of the move was each factor

The windows and the evidence above are the whole free picture: what moved, and what arrived. Pro decomposes the move itself into new evidence, decay, corroboration and attribute changes, per dimension.

  • Points from new evidence versus points lost to decay
  • Corroboration and source-quality changes, separated
  • Attribute changes: funding, valuation, status
  • Any two dates, not just the fixed windows
Upgrade to Pro
Score history

Trend

7 daily snapshots
02550751002026-08-192026-09-082026-09-12
Radar IPO Token On-chain
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HCW Biologics Inc.5300
Laser Photonics Corp5200
Side-by-side comparison →
Company overview

PROFILE

Founded
2002
Employees
not on record
Latest valuation
none on record
Latest round
Private Placement $250M (2022-08-05)
Total funding
$12.5B
Major investors
none on record
Executives
none on record
Aliases
SpaceX · Space Exploration Technologies · Starlink

Space Exploration Technologies Corp.: launch vehicles, spacecraft and the Starlink satellite network.

Funding history (extracted)
IPO status

IPO SIGNAL SCORE

Signal score
59.6 signal score — not a calibrated probability
IPO readiness
65.0 structural (maturity, funding, valuation)
Timeline estimate
prediction already public
Filing status
fact PUBLIC
Public/private
public
Known banks
JPMorgan ChasementionedGoldman SachsmentionedMorgan Stanleymentioned
Advisors
none detected
Score components
  • Filing Evidence14.6 / 20.0 pts
    3 signals · 3 decayed signal(s), mass 72.1 → 73.0/100 (k=55) × weight 0.2
  • Regulatory Evidence13.3 / 16.0 pts
    13 signals · 13 decayed signal(s), mass 106.7 → 83.1/100 (k=60) × weight 0.16
  • Funding Maturity8.0 / 8.0 pts
    Company attribute · total funding $12457M, latest round private_placement
  • Financial Maturity8.0 / 8.0 pts
    Company attribute · company is already public
  • Executive Evidence5.7 / 8.0 pts
    10 signals · 10 decayed signal(s), mass 55.0 → 70.6/100 (k=45) × weight 0.08
  • Market Conditions4.0 / 4.0 pts
    Company attribute · 201 S-1/F-1 filings on EDGAR in last 90d vs baseline 60
  • Banking Evidence3.3 / 14.0 pts
    5 signals · 5 decayed signal(s), mass 13.2 → 23.2/100 (k=50) × weight 0.14
  • Recency2.8 / 3.0 pts
    Company attribute · most recent supporting signal 8d old (recency factor 0.94)
  • Valuation Maturity0.0 / 8.0 pts
    Company attribute · no valuation on record
  • Liquidity Evidence0.0 / 6.0 pts
    Company attribute · no signals in window
  • Corporate Restructuring0.0 / 5.0 pts
    Company attribute · no signals in window

59.6 points total, out of 100 available at these weights.

Recent IPO / regulatory / banking evidence
  • Reported IPO exploration / consideration+0.6

    Breaking: Anthropic IPO Eyes October Launch At $2 Trillion Valuation To Beat SpaceX

    coingape.com Tier 4 source, Secondary
  • Reported IPO exploration / consideration+1.2

    Anthropic Considers Letting Shareholders Sell In IPO, Departing from SpaceX Playbook

    The Information Tier 4 source, Secondary
  • Reported IPO exploration / consideration+1.1

    Daily Digest: Anthropic IPO could eclipse SpaceX, Rippling and Runlayer drop competing lawsuits

    The Business Journals Tier 4 source, Secondary
  • Form 8-K current report+0.3

    8-K filed by SPACE EXPLORATION TECHNOLOGIES CORP — 8-K

    OfficialSEC EDGAR
Tokenization status

TOKENIZATION SIGNAL SCORE

Signal score
7.9
On-chain readiness
5.9
Tokenization partners
Backed Financementioned
Custody
none detected
Transfer agent
none detected
Exchanges / venues
New York Stock Exchangementioned
Settlement
none detected
Blockchains
none detected
Score components
  • Explicit Statements4.1 / 18.0 pts
    1 signal · 1 decayed signal(s), mass 12.8 → 22.6/100 (k=50) × weight 0.18
  • Recency2.3 / 4.0 pts
    Company attribute · most recent supporting signal 99d old (recency factor 0.56)
  • Exchange Relationships1.6 / 8.0 pts
    1 signal · 1 decayed signal(s), mass 10.1 → 20.0/100 (k=45) × weight 0.08
  • Regulatory Readiness0.0 / 8.0 pts
    Company attribute · no signals in window
  • Executive Statements0.0 / 8.0 pts
    Company attribute · no signals in window
  • Custody Infrastructure0.0 / 7.0 pts
    Company attribute · no signals in window
  • Blockchain Partnerships0.0 / 10.0 pts
    Company attribute · no signals in window
  • Securities Infrastructure0.0 / 12.0 pts
    Company attribute · no signals in window
  • Settlement Infrastructure0.0 / 8.0 pts
    Company attribute · no signals in window
  • Tokenization Partnerships0.0 / 17.0 pts
    Company attribute · no signals in window

7.9 points total, out of 100 available at these weights.

On-chain readiness components
  • Securities Infrastructure5.9 / 16.0 pts
    2 signals · 2 decayed signal(s), mass 23.1 → 37.0/100 (k=50) × weight 0.16
  • Settlement0.0 / 12.0 pts
    Company attribute · no signals in window
  • Kyc Aml Readiness0.0 / 10.0 pts
    Company attribute · no signals in window
  • Tokenization Provider0.0 / 14.0 pts
    Company attribute · no signals in window
  • Custody0.0 / 12.0 pts
    Company attribute · no signals in window
  • Transfer Infrastructure0.0 / 12.0 pts
    Company attribute · no signals in window
  • Regulatory Compatibility0.0 / 12.0 pts
    Company attribute · no signals in window
  • Blockchain Integration0.0 / 12.0 pts
    Company attribute · no signals in window

5.9 points total, out of 100 available at these weights.

Tokenization / blockchain evidence

No evidence of this kind on record.

IPO Radar is a research and intelligence tool. Scores are signal scores derived from public evidence — they are not calibrated probabilities and not investment advice. FACT, INFERENCE and PREDICTION are kept separate, and every event links to its source.